Costa Living: Why Blu-ray Will Win

This column is about actually testing and living with cutting-edge technology, which is what makes it different from the artificial rhetoric, deliberate provocation, and blatant bloviating that is increasingly common in technology journalism. Still, there comes a time when you just have to make a straight argument in favor of or against a new technology. That's why I have to say, in the HD-DVD versus Blu-ray battle, Blu-ray is going to hand HD-DVD its ass on a sliding platter.

HD-DVD had a head start, to be sure. And some industry luminaries jumped on board with two feet. First mover advantage and the blessing of Microsoft? How could it fail? Keep watching, it will. To be fair, there is nothing inherently wrong with HD-DVD, and it isn't vastly inferior or anti-consumer in any particular way. It just doesn't quite match Blu-ray in a number of key areas. Therefore, it will lose.

Capacity

HD-DVDs are easier and cheaper to make, but Blu-ray discs store more data. You can get 25GB on a single-layer Blu-ray disc, compared to 15GB on an HD-DVD. And the first double layer 50GB Blu-ray discs just hit the market. The first movie to get this honor: Adam Sandler's Click. (Because fart jokes are way funnier in PCM uncompressed audio.). Think of it this way: Has any format war ever been won by the technology with less capacity? If you can think of one, e-mail me.

Hardware support

HD-DVD has two main backers: Toshiba and Microsoft. Toshiba has used its clout to push HD-DVD into a few laptops, but Blu-ray has a much broader base of support. Panasonic, Sony, Philips, and Samsung will all have players shipping by the end of December. Yes, Blu-ray players have been plagued by delays. Still, it isn't like HD-DVD players have been flying off store shelves in the meantime.

Studio Support

There are about 100 Blu-ray titles available for sale right now, but that number isn't so significant. Right now, there aren't too many players out there, so studios are proceeding cautiously. That said, Blu-ray has the support of seven of the eight largest movie studios. And five of those have pledged to support Blu-ray exclusively. That means if you want to watch a Sony, Disney, or 20th Century Fox film in high def, it has to be on Blu-ray.

The argument has been made by people I trust and respect that the whole packaged media business is doomed anyway. Soon we will all be ordering our movies on demand either from our cable provider, through iTunes, or via Bittorrent. There is some truth to this. I already watch a ton of downloaded TV and movies on my PC. The thing to remember here is that this isn't a high-definition experience. Broadband is great, but sending high-definition video, to say nothing of lossless audio, bonus tracks, and interactive features, all out over the Internet just isn't practical over existing technologies, or anything we are likely to see soon. Anyway, that trend would kill HD-DVD just as fast as Blu-ray.

Of course, I wouldn't buy a Blu-ray player now. They are too damn expensive, and I still need to make the switch to HD at home. Then again, if it was part of a PS3 if might be worth it. Sony sold 195,000 PS3s in the U.S. in November alone. And every one of them is a fully functioning Blu-ray player. I dare say that number alone blows away HD-DVD sales for the last year. Nuff said.

[Thanks goes to www.gearlog.com for this article]